Ontario Cottage Market Pauses Amidst Economic Uncertainty

The Ontario cottage market is experiencing some instability amid growing economic concerns among buyers and sellers, according to the REMAX 2025 Cabin & Cottage Trends Report. With uncertainty growing around employment and the ultimate direction of the tariff negotiations post the federal government, activity has more or less paused.

Year-over-year prices in the Ontario cottage market have declined across half of all regions analyzed, with declines ranging between 1.0 and 20.3 per cent, including Niagara-on-the-Lake, Peterborough County, Northwestern Ontario, Orillia, and Grand Bend, largely due to increases in available inventory. Meanwhile, the remaining 50 per cent of Ontario cottage markets have seen prices increase, reflective of tight inventory levels in Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Greater Sudbury, and Prince Edward County.

Looking ahead, REMAX brokers and agents are expecting buying activity and prices to play out differently from region to region, with 60 per cent of Ontario cottage markets expecting prices to increase, with pent-up demand placing added pressure on existing inventory. Meanwhile, 40 per cent of regions may see price declines as inventory remains  steady and more listing go onto the market in the warmer months.

Families and retirees from the Greater Toronto Area as well as locals are driving demand, while Northwestern Ontario is also experiencing growing interest from out-of-province buyers who left Ontario and are now returning to communities that are familiar to them.

Waterfront properties are in highest demand across Ontario’s recreational property market, followed by access to recreational activities such as skiing and water sports, larger lots with greenspace, and good Wi-Fi.

In Niagara-on-the-Lake, proximity to the U.S. border was once a top amenity, but has lost its lustre following trade tensions, with travel south of the border waning. The region is still expected to see strong demand as buyers look to enjoy other attractions in Ontario’s wine country. Many cottage regions in Ontario such as Prince Edward County and Niagara-on-the-Lake are mostly primary residences, with homeowners in the region year-round.  Other regions surveyed (50 per cent) have seen a growing number of families  pursuing cottages as primary residences, as affordability remains a concern in Ontario and their home hunt is taking them beyond urban centres, where they feel they can get better value for their budget.

Despite the wildfires across Northern Ontario last year, wildfires are not yet a large concern for buyers. However, recent weather events such as ice storms, power failures and flooding are concerns for current homeowners and potential buyers in Orillia, impacting the locations they’re considering.

Ontario Cottage Market Overview

Muskoka Market Overview

If it weren’t for the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, Muskoka would normally be experiencing a buyer’s market as inventory remains strong coupled with increasingly attractive interest rates. Yet, economic and market volatility is making it challenging for buyers to pull the trigger right now. However, with the election decided and trade negotiations with the US imminent, buyers may gain the clarity needed to resume their cottage hunt.

Most recreational property buyers in the region are coming from urban centres, both locally and out-of-province. These buyers are keen to explore the beauty of Muskoka, keep their options open and explore what’s out there.

Cottage sales in the region continue to be driven by families and retirees, much like last year.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are:

• Larger properties with more outdoor/green space
• Waterfront properties
• Access to recreational activities (I.e. skiing, water sports)
• Good Wi-Fi access

Some buyers are choosing to purchase cottages with the intention of using them as rental properties. For these investors, properties with accessory dwellings or guest houses for additional space and added privacy are the most sought after.

Many owners in the region are expressing interest in passing their cottage properties down to future generations, such as their children or grandchildren. This reflects a growing sentiment to keep family legacies intact and ensure the property remains in the family for years to come.

Buyers are seeking properties to renovate or turnkey cottages. Their preference for either depends on their experience in cottage country and personal goals. Those who are comfortable with renovations choose this route to enter the market at a lower price point and folks new the the region may choose turnkey properties to keep maintenance costs and time predictable.

Buyers are ultimately seeking a lifestyle change that gives them access to outdoor spaces they might not typically have, and the opportunity to experience the benefits of being closer to nature more frequently.

Haliburton Market Overview

Haliburton is currently seeing a buyer’s-balanced market, leaning slightly in favour of buyers, due to a modest surplus in inventory. While lower interest rates have provided some encouragement for recreational buyers to re-enter the market, it will take more than just lower rates to drive purchasing activity – economic stability will be key to restoring buyer confidence and increasing market engagement.

Market activity and purchasing trends in the Haliburton region remain consistent with last year, largely driven by continued interest from urban buyers seeking a retreat from city life. Most recreational property buyers come from urban centres, both locally and out-of-province, attracted by the region’s natural beauty, space to decompress, and access to outdoor activities.

Minden and Wilberforce are also up-and-coming, largely driven by continued interest from urban buyers seeking a retreat from city life. These neighbourhoods have great potential for development and investment.

Cabin and cottage sales in the region continue to be driven by families, retirees and estates/family wealth transfer, much like last year. However, these buyers are currently somewhat cautious due to U.S. tariffs, and general economic uncertainty.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are:

• Larger properties with more outdoor/green space
• Waterfront properties
• Access to recreational activities (I.e. skiing, water sports)
• Good Wi-Fi access

Some buyers are choosing to purchase cottages with the intention of using them as rental properties. It’s mainly properties with accessory dwellings, like bunkies, as these dwellings while still a part of the property are either attached with clear boundaries or standalone. Thus, offering more “designated” space and privacy.

Some owners in the region are expressing a desire to pass down their cottage properties to future generations, such as their children or grandchildren, to preserve and care for after they have passed away. This reflects a growing sentiment to keep family legacies intact and ensure the property remains in the family for years to come.

Buyers are looking for both properties in need of renovation and those that are move-in ready. Their choice depends on their experience and goals. Those with renovation experience often prefer properties that need work, as it allows them to enter the market at a lower cost and customize the home to their preferences.

Buyers are seeking a lifestyle change that gives them more control over their choices, access to outdoor spaces they might not typically have, and the opportunity to experience the benefits of being closer to nature more frequently.

Buyer Advice:

It’s also important to discuss with a professional agent how local policies or regulations may impact your decision, as these can vary from one town to another.

Sudbury Market Overview

Greater Sudbury is experiencing a seller’s market due to lower interest rates, competitive pricing compared to the rest of the province, and a diversity of property types to meet the tastes of a wide variety of buyers. Average recreational sale price across all residential property types, increased by 12.8 per cent year-over-year (from $438,385 in Q1 2024 to $494,632 in Q1 2025), while the number of transactions decreased by 9.3 per cent year-over-year (from 431 in 2024 Q1 to 391 in 2025 Q1). Average sale prices are likely to increase by five per cent by the end of 2025 while number of sales are expected to fall five per cent.

Most of the recreational property buyers in the region are local, but the region is seeing an influx of buyers from outside the region thanks to some of the more competitive prices in the province. As more families are increasingly looking to move their wealth into real estate as a safer asset class, Greater Sudbury is becoming a popular choice among investment driven cottage hunters. However, they are not purchasing cottages with the sole intent of using them as rental properties. They want the best of both worlds, the cottage as their “home away from home,” as well as investment when the property is vacant.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are waterfront properties and those with good Wi-Fi access. In addition, properties in the municipalities of French River and West Arm are gaining buyer attention due to their open space, breathtaking views and proximity to water:

Because buyers are using their cottage for leisure and investment, they’re more interested in turn-key cottage offerings over cottages available for renovation. But, for those buyers who are looking to do renovations and touch-ups, the potential price increases for materials and labour due to the rising tariffs is not an immediate concern.

More buyers are looking to purchase a primary residence in what is typically considered a recreational area amid an increasingly pricier reality in more densified regions. Buyers are looking to change their lifestyle, control their decisions, gain access to outdoor space they may not otherwise have access to, and enjoy the feelings of being closer to nature.

Kawartha Lakes Market Overview

The Kawartha Lakes region is a balanced market with a solid inventory of available properties. First-time buyers are exploring the area as an affordable option with waterfront views. Average sale price across all residential property types, increased by 5.5 per cent year-over-year (from $689,000 in Q1 2024 to $727,000 in Q1 2025). The number of transactions across all residential property types decreased by 28 per cent year-over-year (from 282 in 2024 Q1 to 203 in 2025 Q1).

Looking ahead, average sale prices are likely to rise by three per cent by the end of 2025, and number of sales are expected to remain flat through the end of the year.

Kawartha Lakes is a popular area for retirees, families, and young couples looking to get into the market, mainly interested in leaving the GTA in search of waterfront property, larger lots with more outdoor space and access to recreational activities.

Despite lower interest rates, the area hasn’t seen a lot of movement due to ongoing buyer hesitancy in the light of economic turmoil. Many buyers are seeking non-traditional ways of entering the market with multi-family and multi-generational buyers likely to make the purchase more affordable. Co-ownership means that buyers are more open to renovate their properties or purchase more luxury properties to accommodate larger families.

The market is expected to pick up once the warmer weather hits and buyer confidence returns.

Buyer Advice:

Always consult a professional when looking to buy or sell a home as they can offer guidance around taxation or considerations if investors are looking to purchase a property as a short-term rental.

Peterborough County Market Overview

Peterborough County is experiencing a balanced market driven by a recent influx of listings. The area’s affordability and scenic waterfronts are attracting growing interest from buyers. Average sale price across all residential property types, decreased by 2.2 per cent year-over-year (from $727,000 in Q1 2024 to $711,000 in Q1 2025). The number of transactions across all residential property types decreased by 7.1 per cent year-over-year (from 183 in 2024 Q1 to 170 in 2025 Q1).

Average sale prices are likely to rise three per cent by the end of 2025, and number of sales are expected to rise three per cent by the end of 2025.

Rising inventory is pushing the region toward a more balanced market, where there’s a stronger match between what buyers are looking for and what’s available. There is more choice and breathing room for buyers, especially those who’ve struggled with limited options. Sellers are also starting to adjust their expectations as the market evens out.

Sales in the region are being driven primarily by family buyers, though other groups—such as retirees and younger couples—are also becoming more active. Waterfront properties listings are up which are attracting more buyers in the market, amid rising inventory and lower interest rates. Some are seeking a peaceful escape from the pace of city life, while others see these properties as a solid investment opportunity. While most buyers are local, there could be more interest from out-of-province buyers due to the appeal of a quieter, more relaxed lifestyle that the region offers.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are:

• Larger properties with more outdoor/green space
• Waterfront properties
• Access to recreational activities (such as skiing and water sports)

In the region, buyers are interested in both turnkey properties they can renovate, based on their personal preferences and long-term objectives. For those whose budgets allow, a turnkey property is often the preferred choice. On the other hand, buyers with renovation experience tend to gravitate toward homes in need of work, as it offers a more affordable entry point into the market and the opportunity to personalize the property to their liking. Buyers prefer using the property for personal enjoyment rather than renting it out.

Buyer Advice:

Keep in mind that short-term rental policies can vary across the region, so it’s important to understand the local regulations before making a decision.

Grand Bend Market Overview

Grand Bend is experiencing a buyer’s market due to the high inventory available. Average recreational sale price across all residential property types, decreased by 20.3 per cent year-over-year (from $864,457 in Q1 2024 to $688,840 in Q1 2025). Meanwhile, the number of transactions across all recreational property types decreased by 25 per cent year-over-year (from 28 in 2024 Q1 to 21 in 2025 Q1).

Looking ahead, average sale prices are likely to fall eight per cent by the end of 2025, and number of sales are expected to fall 10 per cent by the end of 2025.

The region is starting to see more out of province buyers seeking to return to Ontario. These buyers have lived in Ontario before and left within the last 10 years for work and personal lifestyle changes.

A mix of young and middle-aged couples, retirees and investment buyers are driving cabin and cottage sales in the region. Inventory is plentiful and buyers are keen on making the most of what the property and surrounding areas have to offer. Whether for personal enjoyment, or to rent out to others, buyers are looking in the lower and mid-range price points to help get their foot in the market. There has also been an observed increase in condo sales in the region compared to last year, with more sales surpassing the $1,000,000 mark in the first quarter alone. This recent increase in sales and interest in the market can be attributed to the lower interest rates and people looking beyond typical markets.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are:

• Larger properties with more outdoor/green space
• Waterfront properties
• Access to recreational activities (such as skiing and water sports)
• Good Wi-Fi access

The weather is getting warmer and this seasonal transition into spring and summer will help bring recreational buyers back into the market. When winter weather drags on, buyers feel less urgency to look into recreational properties and buy. But expect this to change soon as warmer weather arrives and buyers seek to enjoy the summer fun, especially near the region’s lake and beaches.

Some buyers are choosing to purchase cottages in the region with the intention of using them as rental properties. Multiple suites are ideal, but hard to find. Proximity to the lake is also top consideration.

With tariffs from the U.S and overall economic uncertainty, most buyers are choosing to wait. Investors also seem to be holding off, as they are unsure what the Canadian and local economy might look like in six to 12 months. Recreational property buyers might also be concerned about renovation and construction costs, but it’s too early to tell at this time how these may be affected.

There is demand for both turn-key cottages and cottages available for renovation. Some prefer turnkey so they can start enjoying the property right away without having to do any work on it, whereas other buyers with the skills and knowledge to renovate are looking for a project to add value and get into the market at a cheaper price point. In addition, cottage and cabin owners in the region have historically expressed interest in passing their cottage properties down to future generations. As future generations can continue to maintain and preserve the property and continue their family legacy.

More buyers are looking to purchase a primary residence in what is typically considered a recreational area. Middle-aged families and retirees are moving from big cities and areas to enjoy the peace and quiet of smaller-town communities. Affordability and lifestyle changes are two of the primary driving factors enticing home buyers in the region. Properties here are relatively cheaper and offer a “home away from home”, while still being “big” and flexible, with adequate access to recreation and many attractive options to choose from.

Buyer Advice:

Recreational markets are highly dynamic with seasonal increases, in both buying and selling activity. Trends in recreational markets may be different than the current real estate trends of the urban markets. Working with a local professional can give you the local insight to a specific recreational market.

Municipal bylaws affecting short-term accommodations are a concern. There are different municipalities around Grand Bend that have different short-term rental policies. Buyers should become familiar with these bylaws if they plan to purchase a rental property. Some bylaws limit rentals in some areas north of Grand Bend, whereas in Grand Bend and south of the region, the bylaws help maintain a positive environment between year-round residences and their cottage owners, with less restrictions.

The Municipality of Lambton Shores has implemented a licensing program for short-term rentals since 2023. This by-law includes an annual licensing fee of $500, occupancy limits of 10 people per rental (two per bedroom plus two additional), and other regulations.

Orillia and Barrie Market Overview

With more inventory available than in previous years, Orillia and Barrie are expected to be buyer’s markets, with lower interest rates encouraging activity in the market. With that said, there may still be some hesitation from buyers due to economic uncertainty. Average recreational sale price across all residential property types, decreased by 16.6per cent year-over-year (from $1,236,744 in Q1 2024 to $1,031,882 in Q1 2025). Meanwhile, the number of transactions across all recreational property types increased by 25 per cent year-over-year (from 16 in 2024 Q1 to 20 in 2025 Q1).

As the area is expected to be a buyer’s market this year, recreational pricing is expected to drop by four per cent and sales transactions are expected to increase by one per cent. With more inventory available in the area, and families and retirees looking for quiet neighbourhoods with waterfront views, it’s expected that the market will pick up through the end of 2025.

The Orillia and Barrie’s recreational property market is expected to pick up through the end of 2025. Local families and retirees are seeking a primary residence with affordability being the main concern with some seeking nearby access to water.

There is still a lot of buyer hesitancy in the market, which agents expect to see turn around as the economy stabilizes and consumer confidence returns. Even as tourism has slowed over the past few years, many are selling their waterfront investment properties as they’re not seeing the return on their investment.

Many owners are considering estate planning and offering their recreational properties to family first hoping to keep it as a legacy property. In addition, some buyers are seeking cottages or homes to renovate looking to find better value when purchasing dated properties.

There is an uptick in concern with recent weather events including large snow accumulations, ice storms, power failures and flooding. This is a big consideration for buyers in the area as insurance premiums can impact long-term affordability.

Buyer Advice:

With an increase in inventory, buyers can expect to have lots of great options in the area and sellers will have to be patient.

It’s always important to consult a professional to ensure that buyers and sellers are seeing the best option for their property. A professional will also be able to help navigate any policies.

Simcoe County Market Overview

Simcoe County is experiencing a balanced market. While there is a demand for properties, buyers are hesitant due to tariff uncertainties and environmental factors, including excessive snow in February and ice storms. Interest rates are lowering which is helping to encourage the market making it more balanced.

Average recreational sale price increased by 4.5 per cent year-over-year (from $2,004,000 in Q1 2024 to $2,095,000 in Q1 2025). The number of transactions across all recreational property types decreased by 14.3 per cent year-over-year (from 7 in 2024 Q1 to 6 in 2025 Q1).

Due to buyer demand and lower interest rates stimulating activity, the average price in the region is expected to increase by five per cent through the end of the year, while sales are expected to increase by 10 per cent.

Simcoe County is experiencing a large demand for year-round living, with buyers looking at recreational properties now and considering how they can be future-proofed. Currently, there is a lower inventory in the Lake Simcoe region, however with the extension of the second residence Capital Gains Tax, there should be more properties coming to market. As interest rates lower, more doors are opening for financial qualifications.

Many retirees are looking to settle in Simcoe, some of whom are on the younger side as low as 40 years of age mainly coming from urban centres seeking waterfront properties, access to recreational activities, larger living spaces with home offices, good Wi-Fi access as well as a quiet neighbourhood.

The market is expected to improve once tariff uncertainties have settled and the market stabilizes, both in sales and prices. With geopolitical tensions adding to buyer hesitancy, it’s expected that when there is more information – one way or another – buyers will be able to plan and make decisions about their real estate.

Many Canadians are considering purchasing in Simcoe County as a primary residence feeling that it’s more affordable than larger city centres, however while this trend is increasing, it sometimes takes them four to five years to land a property they’re interested in.

Buyer Advice:

When you’re ready to purchase, it’s important to have your financing in order so that when you find a property of interest you are ready and can act quickly.

Many communities are not permitting short term rental properties and occasionally they are charging a yearly fee with limited number of approved rentals. If buyers are interested in flipping or short-term rentals, they should speak with their accountant before proceeding.

Northwestern Ontario Market Overview

With low inventory across the region, Northwestern Ontario’s recreational markets are expected to favour sellers, with activity primarily driven by retirees and investment buyers planning for the future.

Average recreational sale price across all residential property types, decreased by 5.2per cent year-over-year (from $467,492 in Q1 2024 to $443,400 in Q1 2025). Meanwhile, the number of transactions across all recreational property types decreased by 50 per cent year-over-year (from 14 in 2024 Q1 to 7 in 2025 Q1). Looking ahead, the average price is expected to increase by 10 per cent and sales transactions are expected to increase by 12 per cent.

Given tariff uncertainty, many buyers have paused taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to the market, despite lower inventory and dropping interest rates. Buyer confidence is expected to return once the federal election is over and the warmer weather increases.

The market is driven primarily by out-of-province retirees and investment buyers looking for waterfront properties to enjoy water sports and other recreational activities. As the weather warms, it’s expected that an increase of interest will drive prices higher.

Purchasing rental properties in the area is increasingly popular, especially considering the lower supply and greater interest in the area making it a strong investment. Some buyers must expand their search area to neighbouring towns and townships, to increase their chances of securing home ownership.

As first-time buyers are looking to get into the market, many are turning to family members for support and families are considering the transfer of recreational properties in estate planning.

Turnkey properties are especially of interest to buyers as affordability remains a factor and many don’t have the finances to renovate their newly purchased home.

Buyer Advice:

In competitive market, buyers have to have patience and then be ready when a property becomes available.

Prince Edward County Market Overview

Prince Edward County is experiencing a balanced market driven by a recent influx of listings. The area is appealing to buyers seeking a lifestyle change or a home away from home with beautiful views. Average recreational sale price across all residential property types, increased by 20.1 per cent year-over-year (from $998,322 in Q1 2024 to $1,199,409 in Q1 2025). The number of transactions across all recreational property types increased by 22.2 per cent year-over-year (from 9 in 2024 Q1 to 11 in 2025 Q1). Both average sale prices and number of sales are likely to rise five per cent by the end of 2025.

Cabin and cottage sales across the region continue to be fueled by families seeking a getaway and retirees chasing a more relaxed pace of life. While demand remains stronger than in previous years, the market could see some shifts as broader economic uncertainty lingers. Concerns about the upcoming federal election, U.S. tariffs, and global instability have stirred some caution, yet the expected slowdown in property demand has yet to materialize. In fact, lower interest rates have breathed new energy into the market, drawing a fresh wave of buyers — many escaping the bustle of urban centres, both locally and from across provincial borders, in search of their perfect retreat.

The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2025 are:

• Waterfront properties
• Larger living spaces with home offices and gyms
• Good Wi-Fi access

The majority of recreational and waterfront properties in the region are being purchased as full-time, primary residences, often by move-up buyers who work remotely. While a smaller segment of buyers are interested in renting out usable waterfront homes or cottages, municipal licensing restrictions have cooled this part of the market. Additionally, younger buyers are increasingly receiving financial support from their parents, as many current owners express a strong desire to keep their properties in the family—passing them down to children and grandchildren to preserve and care for them in the future.

Buyers are primarily looking for high-quality, move-in ready turnkey cottages that align with their personal preferences and long-term goals. They generally lack the time or desire to take on renovation projects.

Buyer Advice:

Be prepared to act when you find the right property, as demand for high-quality waterfront homes and cottages in the region remains strong. Since policies around short-term rentals can vary, it’s wise to work with an experienced realtor familiar with the local municipal licensing regulations.

Niagara-On-The-Lake Market Overview

Niagara-On-The-Lake is experiencing a buyer’s market, with month-over-month listings in the region up by an average of 25 per cent. Average sale price across all residential property types, decreased by 5.6 per cent year-over-year (from $980,000 in Q1 2024 to $925,000 in Q1 2025). The number of transactions across all property types decreased by 57.1 per cent year-over-year (from 91 in 2024 Q1 to 39 in 2025 Q1). Sale prices are expected to decrease by six per cent by the end of 2025, while the number of sales is likely to fall by as much as 22 per cent by the end of 2025.

In Niagara-on-the-Lake, healthy levels of inventory have given buyers an abundance of choice and the ability to carefully consider and compare properties that suit their preferences and needs at a steady pace.

Niagara-on-the-Lake continues to be the destination for retirees in Southern Ontario as empty nesters look to properties that allow them to be close to activities that keep them busy and water access, all in the heart of Ontario’s wine country. As the weather gets warmer, Canadians from the Greater Toronto Area tend to begin their search for properties in the Niagara region.

Similar to other markets across Canada, U.S. tariffs and general economic uncertainty will have an impact on Niagara-on-the-Lake as buyers remain hesitant of what could happen next. Currently, buyers are not too worried and are coming to the region from out-of-province and locally as lower interest rates have made recreational properties more affordable over the last year.

The features and amenities most in demand among buyers in 2025 are:

• Larger properties with more outdoor/green space
• Access to recreational activities (i.e. skiing, water sports)
• Access to cultural and community centres

Buyers are becoming more value-conscious, with many looking for a lifestyle that offers them a bit more freedom and flexibility and a home away from home. Being close to the U.S. border used to be a top amenity for buyers looking to move to Niagara-on-the-Lake, but it’s lost its lustre. Buyers are still flocking to this region, but with the intent on exploring Canadian amenities Ontario’s wine country has to offer from new wineries, golf courses, and nature reserves. To attract more recreational and move-over buyers, it’s also important for properties to be priced realistically – especially for owners who are looking to sell their homes quickly.

Most recreational and waterfront properties in the region are being purchased as full-time, primary residences, seeking turnkey homes that are ready for immediate use. Property owners see their homes not just as appreciating assets, but as cherished spaces where family memories are made and shared.

Buyer Advice:

Start your search early. The summer is the busiest season in the region, and as buyers become active and demand goes up, properties are snapped up quickly. Also, with increased demand comes rising prices. t’s also a good idea to work with a local realtor who can keep you informed on short-term rental restrictions in Niagara-on-the-Lake.